Today, as counting of votes is underway in Bihar, it appears that BJP might be staring towards a defeat as the Mahagathbandhan stands way ahead of the saffron brigade at 155 seats. The BJP has bagged 77 seats as of now. If we ponder on what the opinion and exit polls had to say, it may by all means lead to an interesting debate of sorts. Let’s take a look at what the exit polls had predicted.
Today’s Chanakya and India Today-Cicero had predicted a win for the NDA, while four other exit polls (Cvoter had offered its results with India TV and Times Now) pointed to a Mahagathbandhan victory.
Today’s Chanakya-News24
NDA: 155; Grand Alliance: 83; Others: 5
Today’s Chanakya has built up a reputation of coming the closest to actual results amongst all exit polls and therefore its prediction is keenly watched. In these polls, they had predicted a landslide win for the NDA, giving it a range of 155 seats with a +/- error of 11 seats and an average of 155 seats out of a total of 243 seats.
As per Today’s Chanakya, the Grand Alliance will get within a range of 83 with a +/- error of 9 and an average of 83 seats. Others are expected to get within a range of 5 with an error of +/- 3 and an average of 5.
Unlike other polls which have predicted a closer contest, this result stands out for its contrarian prediction.
India Today – Cicero
NDA: 119; Grand Alliance: 117; Others: 7
Their exit poll results predict a slight advantage to the NDA with a range of 111-127 seats and an average of 119 seats.
The Grand Alliance is predicted to win within a range of 110-124 with an average of 117 seats. Others are expected to get within a range of 4-10 seats with an average of 7 seats.
CNX-NewsX
Grand Alliance: 135; NDA: 95; Others: 18
Amongst the four other exit polls that have predicted a win for the Grand Alliance, CNX-NewX has predicted the highest seats for Mahagathbandhan, predicting a range of 130-140 seats with an average of 135 seats. NDA is predicted to win within a range of 90-100 seats with an average of 95 seats. Others are predicted to get between 13 and 23 with an average of 18 seats.
ABP-Nielsen
Grand Alliance: 130; NDA: 108; Others: 5
Their poll has not predicted a range, but has given 130 seats to the Grand Alliance and 108 seats to the NDA. Others stand at 5 seats.
News Nation:
Grand Alliance: 125; NDA: 114; Others: 4
According to their poll, Grand Alliance is expected to win between 123 to 127 seats with an average of 125. The NDA is expected to garner between 112-116 seats with an average of 114. Others are predicted to get between 3 and 5 seats with an average of 4.
India TV-CVoter:
Grand Alliance: 122; NDA: 111; Others: 10
According to their exit poll, the Grand Alliance will win in the range of 112 and 132 seats with an average of 122 seats, while the NDA is predicted to win in the range of 101 to 121 seats with an average at 111 seats. Others are expected to get between 6 and 14 seats with the average standing at 10 seats.
Times Now-Cvoter:
Grand Alliance: 122; NDA: 111; Others: 10
Their poll results show a range between 112 and 132 seats for the Grand Alliance with an average of 122 seats, while NDA is predicted to win between 101-121 with an average of 111 seats. Other are predicted to get between 6 and 10 seats with an average of 10.
As per Times now-Cvoter exit polls, 84% of the Muslims have voted in favour of the Grand Alliance. This is certainly going to give the Mahagathbandhan an edge, especially since a sizeable section of the Yadav vote is also expected to vote in their favour. As per this exit poll, around 49% of the Dalits have voted in favour of NDA, while 36% have gone with Mahagathbandhan and 15% have voted for Others. 70% of the Backwards have voted in favour of the Grand Alliance, while NDA could garner only 20% of the votes. 46% of the Mahadalit votes have gone to NDA, while 35% have backed the Grand Alliance and 19% have voted for Others.
Observation
From the above, it is obvious that the predictions are quite diverse and therefore, it is extremely difficult to predict the trends at this stage. A close look at the predictions of India TV-Cvoter and News Nation shows that the gap between Grand Alliance and NDA is narrow and any variation in the results predicted for Others can swing a win for the opposing alliance. Same is true for India TV-Cicero poll which shows the NDA marginally ahead.
2015 Bihar Assembly polls has been one of the most keenly followed elections and the varying trends could be any pollster’s nightmare, where predicting the result is anybody’s guess. We need to wait till evening to decide who came closest to the actual result.
