Exit Polls for out for Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and the Union Territory of Puducherry and if one were to go by trends displayed by these polls, Indian politics is in for a churn.
It would be prudent to note here that past experience has shown Exit Polls going wrong more often than not, therefore, one must tread with caution before reading too much into these results.
So let’s look at what these four different exit pollsters have predicted and use their predictions to gauge the emerging political trends.
Assam Assembly Election 2016 Exit Poll
Total Assembly seats: 126
Minimum seats required to win: 64
C Voter
- BJP Alliance: 57
- Congress: 41
- AIUDF: 18
- Others: 10
Nielsen ABP Ananda
- BJP Alliance: 81
- Congress: 33
- AIUDF: 10
- Others: 2
Axis-India Today
- BJP Alliance: 86
- Congress: 28
- AIUDF: 7
- Others: 0
Chanakya News X
- BJP Alliance: 90
- Congress: 27
- AIUDF: 9
- Others: 0
All polls are unanimous on BJP coming to power in Assam, what needs to be seen are the final numbers.
BJP has the largest stake in Assam where it seeks to makes its debut in governing a state in North East India for the first time. After losing in Bihar and with little chance of making an impact in West Bengal, BJP needs to win in Assam since it is desperate to shore up its numbers in Rajya Sabha.
For the Congress, anti-incumbency seems to be finally catching up with Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, who has had a long run in Assam.
Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF was expected to make higher gains on the back of the large Muslim voter base comprising locals and Bangladeshi migrants who have made Assam their home. He was hoping to play kingmaker and was all set to negotiate his terms with whichever party came to power. But with polls pointing to a comfortable win for the BJP, he might find himself and his party in political isolation.
West Bengal Assembly Election 2016 Exit Poll
Total Assembly seats: 295 (one member nominated from the Anglo Indian community)
Minimum seats required to win: 148
C Voter
- Trinamool Congress: 167
- Left + Congress: 120
- BJP: 4
- Others: 3
Nielsen ABP Ananda
- Trinamool Congress: 163
- Left + Congress: 126
- BJP: 2
- Others: 3
Axis-India Today
- Trinamool Congress: 243
- Left + Congress: 45
- BJP: 3
- Others: 3
Chanakya News X
- Trinamool Congress: 173
- Left + Congress: 115
- BJP: 2
- Others: 4
All four exit polls are unanimous about Mamata Banerjee-led TMC retaining power in Bengal. Only Nielsen ABP has said that there is a possibility of 25 seats going either way and could swing the result for or against the TMC. If true, this will make 19 May a truly nail biting event in West Bengal.
West Bengal is a crucial state not just at the regional level but for its influence in national politics. Earlier, it was the Left Front government’s support to the Congress at the centre that bailed out the party from time to time.
TMC has since grown in strength and making deep inroads into the rural hinterland which used to be the Left Front’s stronghold at one time. The polls reveal that people have still not forgiven the Left Front’s high handed rule in Bengal and are still willing to go with TMC despite controversies revolving Sarada and Narada scams, violence unleashed by TMC cadres and syndicates, and the recent flyover collapse in Kolkata.
TMC has 184 seats in the outgoing assembly. Therefore, any decline in seats will only reflect on TMC’s declining popularity, something which she and her party will need to work upon in the coming times.
Tamil Nadu Assembly Election 2016 Exit Poll
Total Assembly seats: 234
Minimum seats required to win: 118
C Voter
- AIADMK: 139
- DMK + Congress: 78
- DMDK + CPIM + CPI: 15l
- BJP: Nil
- Others: 2
Axis-India Today
- AIADMK: 99
- DMK + Congress: 132
- DMDK + CPIM + CPI: Nil
- BJP: Nil
- Others: 3
Chanakya News X
- AIADMK: 90
- DMK + Congress: 140
- DMDK + CPIM + CPI: Nil
- BJP: Nil
- Others: 4
News Nation TV
- AIADMK: 97
- DMK + Congress: 116
- DMDK + CPIM + CPI: Nil
- BJP: Nil
- Others: 21
Barring C Voter, all other polls are showing DMK alliance making a strong come back. C Voter is predicting 130 seats for AIADMK. The trends show that voters have not really bought into Amma’s social schemes and freebies. The exit polls indicated a greater preference for the AIADMK by female voters, while most men seem to be leaning towards the DMK.
This is interesting given that the DMK has been firefighting within the family with the patriarch Karunanidhi announcing Stalin as his worthy successor. The trends seem to point to M.K. Alagiri’s political isolation while snuffing out any chance of Vijayakanth’s dream of forming a Third Front in these elections.
BJP was hoping to make inroads by capitalizsng on the DMK’s infighting and splitting of votes with the Third Front going in its favour to some extent. The poll predictions show BJP will continue to remain a non-issue in TN politics, at least for now.
Kerala Assembly Election 2016 Exit Poll
Total Assembly seats: 140
Minimum seats required to win: 71
C Voter
- UDF Alliance: 58
- LDF Alliance: 78
- BJP: 2
- Others: 2
Axis-India Today
- UDF Alliance: 43
- LDF Alliance: 94
- BJP: 3
- Others: 0
Chanakya News X
- UDF Alliance: 57
- LDF Alliance: 75
- BJP: 8
- Others: Nil
News Nation TV
- UDF Alliance: 70
- LDF Alliance: 69
- BJP: 1
- Others: Nil
Barring News Nation, all other polls seem to point towards a comeback for the LDF. The Left Front has been facing a wipe out in most of its traditional strongholds and with the exception of Tripura, it has been struggling to remain relevant in India’s changing political dynamics. With a host of scandals hitting Oommen Chandy and his government, LDF seems to be emerging as the gainer and a win in Kerala will give the struggling alliance a lifeline. For the Congress, losing Kerala will be yet another major setback, which along with the impending defeat in Assam, will only add to the existing dilemma regarding its leadership.
Puducherry Assembly Election 2016 Exit Poll
Total Assembly seats: 30
Minimum seats required to win: 16
C Voter
- Congress-DMK Alliance: 14
- AINRC: 9
- AIADMK Alliance: 5
- Others: 2
NDTV
- Congress-DMK Alliance: 16
- AINRC: 10
- AIADMK Alliance: 3
- Others: 1
Axis-India Today
- Congress-DMK Alliance: 18
- AINRC: 10
- AIADMK Alliance: 2
- Others: 0
All exit polls are predicting a win for the DMK-Congress alliance which could be the only piece of good news for the Congress. Jayalalithaa’s influence seems to be restricted to Tamil Nadu only with the AINRC set to head the opposition in the Assembly.
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