After seven phases of hectic voting, here is what the Exit Polls reveal regarding the outcome of 2019 general elections.
As per prediction pundits, the BJP-led NDA is coming back to power, completely surprising the best of political analysts, commentators and even political leaders. In the last few months, most hinted at a below-par performance of the BJP and a corresponding rise in the performance of most opposition parties, at the cost of the BJP-led NDA. Most polls are more or less in a similar range, with the exception of ABP-AC Nielsen pointing to a different result altogether.
The BJP has been successful in establishing a base in the states where it had little presence, such as Karnataka, West Bengal, and Odisha. From here, the party can be expected to make major inroads in the next assembly elections in these states.
After BJP’s debacle in losing the crucial states of M.P, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, and Punjab, it was expected to fare below par as compared to 2014. Barring Punjab, the Exit polls point otherwise in most of the states, showing gains for the BJP where it had lost ground.
In the Hindi speaking belt from where the BJP draws its strength, general opinion pointed to reverses for the party in 2019. The Exit polls show the party continues to have considerable influence on the Hindi speaking belt.
After the NRC and Citizenship Amendment Bill controversy, the BJP was expected to lose its gains in the North East region. The Exit polls once again show that the BJP continues to retain the platform, on which it is expected to build further.
In western India, another strong region for the BJP, voters seem to continue to place their faith in the BJP.
The Congress party has failed in its attempt to build a workable alliance in the eyes of the common man, despite good results expected from Tamil Nadu. The party’s failure in joining the SP-BSP-RLD alliance to put up a united fight against the BJP has cost the alliance dearly.
The Exit Polls in Numbers
One must refer to Exit polls with some caution, as Exit polls are known to go very wrong. Most recently, all Exit polls in Australia were proven completely wrong. Earlier, in Israel, a country with smaller demographics, the Exit polls missed their predictions by a wide margin. Same for the 2016 U.S presidential elections when Donald Trump won against Hillary Clinton. That said, exit polls can offer some trends direction.
As per the Exit polls, the BJP-led NDA is going to cross 300 seats or, at worst, may come close to it.
The actual seat results may vary on May 23, when the vote count begins; however, it may not change the fact that the NDA is getting a majority. If that happens, the result will change the face of Indian politics for a long time.
Various media houses conducted Exit polls in collaboration with different agencies.
Their predictions are as below.
Total Lok Sabha seats: 542/543
Majority Mark: 272 seats
NDTV Poll of Polls
- BJP+: 295
- UPA+: 127
- Others: 120
NDTV has collated all exit poll predictions from different regional and national channels to come out with their Poll of Polls. According to NDTV, their figures represent all media predictions, including regional media. Their methodology uses the average to reveal the final figures and is, therefore, a more accurate representation of the exit poll predictions.
Times Now-VMR
- BJP+: 306
- UPA+: 132
- Others: 104
Times Now-VMR poll shows NDA getting 306 seats compared to UPA’s 132. According to them, Congress is getting double-digit seats and is not touching three figures.
India Today – Axis
- BJP+: 339-365
- UPA+: 77 – 108
- Others: 79 – 111
India Today – Axis had gone with the widest sample size of 7 lakh, unlike previous elections when the sample size was just 20,000. Therefore, it is expected to be closer to actual results once vote counting gets underway. They are giving the NDA a much higher range of seats than other pollsters, and predict UPA’s performance at a lower range than others.
CNN IBN – IPSOS
- BJP+: 336
- UPA+: 82
- Others: 124
Republic TV-C Voter
- BJP+: 287
- UPA+: 128
- Others: 127
Republic-Jan Ki Baat
- BJP+: 305
- UPA+: 124
- Others: 113
Republic TV has come out with two Exit polls conducted by two different agencies, which reflects the divergence in poll conclusions between agencies.
News Nation
- BJP+: 282-290
- UPA+: 118-126
- Others: 130-138
ABP-AC Nielsen
- BJP+: 267
- UPA+: 127
- Others: 148
ABP-AC Nielsen survey shows a different set of numbers as compared to the others. AC Nielsen is known to be conservative in their poll number projections, but this year they have gone against the flow to predict outcomes different from most others.
News 24 – Chanakya
- BJP+: 350
- UPA+: 95
- Others: 97
Some important State-wise break-up of Poll of Polls
In the states, the biggest news is coming from Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, West Bengal, and Odisha where the BJP is making its biggest inroads.
Uttar Pradesh: Total seats – 80
- BJP + AD: 50
- BSP + SP+: 28
- Cong +JAP: 2
West Bengal: Total seats – 42
- TMC: 26
- BJP: 14
- Cong: 2
- CPI(M): 0
Odisha: Total seats – 21
- BJP: 11
- BJD: 10
- Cong: 0
- Others: 0
Karnataka: Total seats – 28
- BJP+: 19
- Cong+JD(S): 9
- Others: 0
Maharashtra: Total seats – 48
- BJP + Shiv Sena: 36
- Cong + NCP: 11
- Others: 1
Rajasthan: Total seats – 25
- BJP+: 22
- UPA+: 3
- Others: 0
Madhya Pradesh: Total seats – 29
- BJP+: 24
- Cong+: 5
- BSP+SP: 0
- Others: 0
Chhattisgarh: Total seats – 11
- BJP: 6
- Cong: 5
- BSP: 0
Gujarat: Total seats – 26
- BJP: 26
- Cong: 3
- Others: 0
Andhra Pradesh: Total seats – 25
- YSRCP: 15
- TDP: 10
- BJP: 0
Telangana: Total seats – 17
- TRS: 12
- Cong: 2
Tamil Nadu: Total seats – 38
- DMK + Cong: 27
- AIADMK + BJP: 10
- Others: 1
Bihar: Total seats – 40
- BJP + JD(U): 32
- RJD + Cong+: 8
- Others: 0
Kerala: Total seats: 20
- Cong+: 14
- Left+: 4
- BJP+: 4
Assam: Total seats – 14
- AGP+BJP+: 9
- Cong+: 3
- Others: 0
Punjab: Total seats – 13
- BJP + SAD: 4
- Cong: 8
- AAP: 1
Haryana: Total seats – 10
- BJP: 8
- Cong: 2
- INLD: 0
Jharkhand: Total seats – 14
- BJP+AJSU: 8
- Cong+JMM: 5
- Others: 1
Delhi: Total seats – 7
- BJP: 6
- Cong: 1
- AAP: 0
Now all eyes are on May 23, 2019, as the largest democracy in the world eagerly awaits the outcome of the 2019 general elections.
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