![\"Nitish](\"https:\/\/www.mapsofindia.com\/ci-moi-images\/my-india\/2015\/09\/nitish-kumar-as-cm-favourite.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nAll eyes are on Bihar, as political parties and analysts pull out their calculators to work out all possible permutation combinations on poll outcome. As in the run up to any poll, there are several pre-poll surveys taken out by various agencies and the first off the block for Bihar elections has been the ITG-Cicero Poll Pre Poll Survey which has just released its own findings and conclusions.<\/p>\n
It must be said here that Pre Poll surveys cannot be taken as absolute and vary from agency to agency. However, let us take a look at some interesting findings from this poll.<\/p>\n
Nitish Kumar emerges as the people favourite for CM post<\/h3>\n
The survey revealed that Nitish Kumar of JD(U) was most preferred as the next Chief Minister by getting maximum support of 29%. In contrast, the BJP\u2019s possible candidate, Sushil Modi, could garner a distant 19% votes. In a reflection of Lalu Prasad\u2019s fall from grace, he could manage just 12% support, while Ram Vilas Paswan ended with an insignificant 7%.<\/p>\n
Which alliance is expected to win?<\/h3>\n
It is interesting to note that while the people are favouring Nitish Kumar as a CM, their choice for overall leadership is favouring the BJP alliance. As per survey, the BJP alliance is expected to win 125 seats (122 is the line for simple majority), while the JD(U) alliance is shown to win 106 seats and remaining 12 going to others.<\/p>\n
This seems to be in line with the BJP\u2019s confidence in building upon the Dalit and Mahadalit vote, with the \u2018coup\u2019 it engineered in winning \u2018left-in-the-lurch\u2019 Jitan Manjhi\u2019s support, which now seems to be tilting the scale in the BJP camp\u2019s favour.<\/p>\n
Development will be the deciding factor<\/h3>\n
When asked what were the positives of the Nitish Kumar-led JD(U)+BJP Government, 40% said \u2018construction of roads\u2019. This was followed by \u2018women\u2019s empowerment\u2019 that got 9% and was followed by \u2018better education facilities\u2019 that received 8% votes.<\/p>\n
During the Lalu Prasad regime \u2018law & order\u2019 or lack of it, was a major issue. In a vote of confidence in the Nitish Kumar government, 7% voted \u2018reduction in crime\u2019 as a major achievement. 6% said \u2018good governance\u2019 but then this was supposed to be his strong point, wasn\u2019t it? So it is surprising that only 6% attributed \u2018good governance\u2019 in Nitish Kumar\u2019s favour.<\/p>\n
What were the major reasons for Nitish Kumar\u2019s fall from grace?<\/h3>\n
According to the survey, 23% people said it was due to \u2018slow job growth rate\u2019. This again is a bit surprising since Nitish Kumar has undertaken several development initiatives that resulted in newer jobs being created. But the survey seems to point to the fact that in people\u2019s perception that was not enough.<\/p>\n
During the Lalu Prasad era, \u2018corruption\u2019 seemed unstoppable and in contrast Nitish Kumar\u2019s government seemed earnest in its fight against corruption. So here again it does come as a surprise that 21% people said \u2018inability to curb corruption\u2019 was a reason for Nitish Kumar losing people support.<\/p>\n
Again, it was under Lalu Prasad regime when caste based politics was at its peak. So when Nitish Kumar took over, it was expected that he would cut through caste politics and push for development irrespective of caste. While he did do a lot in this regard, 9% still attributed \u2018promotion of casteism\u2019 as a failure on part of the Nitish Kumar government. 8% felt it was \u2018ignoring farmer concerns\u2019 that caused his eroding support.<\/p>\n
Which government did a better job?<\/h3>\n
This question is important, since Nitish Kumar has led the government with two separate support alliances that have been opposing forces. Therefore, people\u2019s perception of his leadership under both regimes needed to be known. The survey revealed that 40% felt that the Nitish Kumar government under JD(U)+BJP alliance performed better than that under the present dispensation, which earned just 33% support. Another 27% said \u2018can\u2019t say\u2019. This feedback is important, as the current polls have people making this comparison and will definitely be a major factor when the voter gives his vote. In fact, this drop in support confirms that while Nitish remains the favoured candidate for CM\u2019s post, his present alliance is not favoured.<\/p>\n
Personality comparison between Nitish Kumar and Narendra Modi<\/h3>\n
This will surprise many. When asked who is more arrogant between the two, 36% opined Nitish Kumar to be more arrogant, while 30% said that of Narendra Modi. One would have expected the order to be reversed but then that\u2019s what surveys do, they throw up least expected surprises!
\nHow do various \u2018castes\u2019 stand in their support of the two camps?
\nIn Bihar, caste has always been a factor in politics and therefore caste support is critical in making or breaking a party or alliance. The survey has tried to gauge the support of various castes for either alliance and the results reflect the current mood.<\/p>\n
As expected, 70% of Brahmins support the BJP camp, while 18% support JD(U) alliance. 70% of the Thakur+Rajput community supported the BJP camp, while 20% supported the JD(U) group. 77% of Bhumihars supported the BJP camp, while 16% stayed with JD(U). In similar trends, 52% of the remaining upper castes supported the BJP and 35% remained with JD(U) camp.<\/p>\n
The Yadav\/Ahir caste is quite large and influential. 62% supported the JD(U) camp, while 37% extended support to the BJP group. Amongst the Kurmi\/Koeri community, 42% supported the JD(U), while 34% remained with BJP camp.<\/p>\n
Muslims comprise approximately 16% of the population in Bihar and 67% placed their faith in the JD(U) group, while 15% supported the BJP-led alliance. This is on expected lines, as the Muslims have largely remained with JD(U) for several years now.<\/p>\n
43% of other OBCs have voted in support of the BJP alliance, while 34% favour JD(U). 49% of the Mahadalits have decided to go with BJP alliance and 33% have stayed with JD(U). 54% of other Dalits have decide to go with BJP camp and 29% confirmed support for JD(U).<\/p>\n
The above caste support though critical can change at the time of voting, as the \u2018female\u2019 voter support is difficult to gauge and on the other hand, with Mulayam Singh Yadav deciding to go it alone is going to split the Yadav vote. How all this impacts the final equations, remains to be seen. As said before, this is only one pre poll survey and there will be others reflecting contrasting opinions. All eyes are on Bihar, as political parties and analysts pull out their calculators to work out all possible permutation combinations on poll outcome. As in the run up to any poll, there are several pre-poll surveys taken out by various agencies and the first off the block for Bihar elections has been the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1316,"featured_media":49227,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6505],"tags":[6507,6501,6502,3683,6506],"class_list":{"0":"post-49216","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-election-countdown","8":"tag-assembly-elections-2015","9":"tag-bihar-elections-2015","10":"tag-bihar-polls-2015","11":"tag-elections","12":"tag-elections-2015"},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mapsofindia.com\/my-india\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49216","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mapsofindia.com\/my-india\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mapsofindia.com\/my-india\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mapsofindia.com\/my-india\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1316"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mapsofindia.com\/my-india\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49216"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.mapsofindia.com\/my-india\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49216\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":50156,"href":"https:\/\/www.mapsofindia.com\/my-india\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49216\/revisions\/50156"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mapsofindia.com\/my-india\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49227"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mapsofindia.com\/my-india\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49216"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mapsofindia.com\/my-india\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49216"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mapsofindia.com\/my-india\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49216"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\n\u00a0Read Related Information:<\/strong>
\nBihar Elections 2015<\/a>
\nBihar Election Updates<\/a>
\nBihar Election Dates<\/a>
\nCandidate List for Bihar Assembly Elections 2015<\/a>
\nList of Assembly Constituencies of Bihar<\/a>
\nBihar Election Results<\/a>
\nPolitical Parties of Bihar<\/a>
\nWho will be the next Chief Minister of Bihar?<\/a>
\nList of Chief Ministers (CM) of Bihar<\/a>
\nGovernment and Politics of Bihar<\/a>
\nList of Governors of Bihar<\/a>
\nBihar Map<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"