{"id":81489,"date":"2018-12-08T18:41:24","date_gmt":"2018-12-08T13:11:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mapsofindia.com\/my-india\/?p=81489"},"modified":"2018-12-10T19:43:17","modified_gmt":"2018-12-10T14:13:17","slug":"will-the-bjp-retain-its-hold-over-chhattisgarh","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mapsofindia.com\/my-india\/politics\/will-the-bjp-retain-its-hold-over-chhattisgarh","title":{"rendered":"Will the BJP win Chhattisgarh?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Exit<\/a><\/p>\n

The people of Chhattisgarh voted to elect their representatives to the state\u2019s 90 Assembly seats on November 12 and 20, 2018. The results will be announced on December 11.<\/p>\n

So, the big question on everyone\u2019s mind is – will Raman Singh-led BJP retain power or have the people voted for change after electing the incumbent government for three consecutive terms?<\/p>\n

Political analysts, Psephologists, journalists, and political watchers are all busy concluding the possible outcomes. Several Exit Polls that have been conducted have published varying conclusions. Let\u2019s look at what the Exit Poll of Polls says about Chhattisgarh.<\/p>\n

As per the Exit Poll of all Polls put together, out of a total of 90 seats in contention, INC is likely to get 42 seats, the BJP 41 seats, and BSP 4 seats. It\u2019s a close contest which could go either way.<\/p>\n

Total Seats: 90<\/strong>
\nMajority: 46<\/strong><\/p>\n

The diverse outcomes of individual Exit Polls are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Media<\/strong><\/td>\nBJP<\/strong><\/td>\nINC<\/strong><\/td>\nBSP<\/strong><\/td>\nOthers<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ABP CSDS<\/td>\n52<\/td>\n35<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Republic TV – Cvoter<\/td>\n35-43<\/td>\n40-50<\/td>\n3-7<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
India Today Axis<\/td>\n21-31<\/td>\n55-65<\/td>\n4-8<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
India TV – CNX<\/td>\n42-50<\/td>\n32-38<\/td>\n6-8<\/td>\n1-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Republic Jan Ki Baat<\/td>\n40-48<\/td>\n37-43<\/td>\n5-6<\/td>\n0-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Times Now – CNX<\/td>\n46<\/td>\n35<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
News 24 – Pace<\/td>\n36<\/td>\n50<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NewsX-Neta<\/td>\n43<\/td>\n40<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Maps of India<\/td>\n48<\/td>\n37<\/td>\n\u00a00<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Out of eight different polls conducted, five polls point to the BJP retaining power in Chhattisgarh, with the margin of victory very close in several seats which can swing the outcome either way. Only three polls predict an outright win for the Congress.<\/p>\n

The incumbent CM, Raman Singh, popularly known as Chawal Baba, initiated a foodgrain scheme for the poor which was very popular across the state and was one of the major factors in retaining power for three consecutive terms.<\/p>\n

The widespread farmer distress across the country has affected the farmers in Chhattisgarh as well, and this is showing up in the close results of the Exit polls. In a primarily agrarian state, farmers formed the largest support base for Raman Singh. Erratic monsoon, demonetization and low agricultural prices (MSP) have all contributed to eroding popularity for the incumbent CM.<\/p>\n

It’s not to say he is vastly unpopular. On the contrary, as an individual, he remains the people\u2019s favourite, but his government has lost its sheen in large pockets, especially the poorer ones. Parts of these areas have continued to extend support to the Maoists.<\/p>\n

The Congress spotted the opportunity early and had energized its cadres to present the party as a better alternative. Ajit Jogi\u2019s backing out hit the party\u2019s chances and was expected to eat into Congress\u2019 vote share. The close fight seen in the exit polls, however, seems to reflect Ajit Jogi\u2019s CJC impacted the BJP more than the Congress party.<\/p>\n

Jogi\u2019s alliance with Mayawati was expected to play spoilsport for both the BJP and the Congress, and he hoped to negotiate gains for his party in exchange for support based on who would emerge as the final winner. The polls reflect Jogi\u2019s gamble hasn\u2019t paid off.<\/p>\n

The challenge faced by Raman Singh\u2019s BJP in the 2018 elections must be viewed in the context of results during the 2013 Assembly elections. In 2013, BJP received 5,365,272 votes representing 41% vote share. The Congress got 5,267,698 votes representing 40.3% vote share. The difference in 2013 is extremely narrow for comfort in 2018, given anti-incumbency and negative farmer sentiment working against the BJP this year. The CM will be a worried man going into December 11 when the vote counting begins.<\/p>\n

The Congress faced criticism for not naming a CM candidate to take on a well-entrenched Raman Singh and was expected to go against the party. The exit polls seem to show it wasn\u2019t much of a factor, which in turn, highlights people\u2019s focus on economic development and tribal welfare over the CM candidate.<\/p>\n

A Congress victory here will enthuse the party going into 2019 and will place the party on a stronger footing to negotiate a workable Mahagathbandhan. BJP will be watching the results unfold on December 11 with bated breath.<\/p>\n

Exit Polls of the other states<\/strong><\/p>\n