World oceans have awakened the scientific community with the temperature of the planet’s oceans reaching a new high in June 2026. The unusual rise of 2023 and 2024 has led to numerous queries. Of course, the more heat is added to water, the more extreme weather events and changing weather patterns there will be worldwide. The confluence of El Niño and global warming has caused ocean temperatures to reach frightening limits of heat.
What’s Happening: Oceans Are Nearing Record Heat Again
The Copernicus Marine data showed that sea surface temperature (SSP) outside the polar regions reached a record high of almost 21°C on average each month in 2026, with the daily global mean temperature hitting a record of 21.0°C on June 21. This figure is around 0.1°C lower than the SSP peak for the day of the month for the previous June, since measurements began. The oceans’ extra 0.1°C of heat contributes to more extreme weather events and more alteration of the hydrological cycle on land. Marine heatwaves are occurring concurrently in the tropical Pacific Ocean, the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean Seas. Scientists are watching this closely and wonder whether this will be a continuation of the long-term warming of the ocean.
What Is El Niño and Why Does It Matter for Ocean Heat
El Niño is the warm phase of the broader climate cycle of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), which has a substantial effect on the weather thousands of miles away from the Pacific Ocean. This is because trade winds generally push the warm water west towards Australia, creating a large pool of warm water in the western Pacific. Warm water rises up, and during El Niño events, the trade winds weaken and allow the warm water to push eastward, creating a warm-water wave in the Pacific. During these times, the ocean is able to emit extra heat to the atmosphere and hence is directly involved in the temperature increase. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has declared an El Niño event to be present in the Pacific in June 2026. Every two to seven years on average, episodic warming events occur in the form of El Niño. During these events, we experience dryness in some ecosystems and flooding in others.
How Global Warming Is Amplifying El Niño’s Impact
Human activity in the form of greenhouse gas emissions is a factor in the warming of the oceans, but so is El Niño. Approximately 90% of the additional heat retained due to greenhouse gas emissions is stored in the world’s oceans. This means that each new El Niño event has to rely on the already warm waters, resulting in more intense impacts than the previous event. NOAA confirmed in a recent report that the 2023-24 El Niño also contributed to the record high temperatures in 2024, which were 1.5°C above the pre-industrial era. After El Niño had passed, temperatures stayed elevated into 2025. The study has found an increased likelihood of stronger-than-average ENSO events as a result of human-induced global warming. Human-induced global warming is adding to the oceans’ capacity to generate warm waters for El Niño to develop upon, as well as interfering with their capacity to absorb heat during every El Niño event.
Record-Breaking Numbers to Know
Several important items of information are worth emphasising to underscore the importance of the current situation. First, the El Niño event of 2023-24 was on the brink of becoming the strongest on record, but ended up tying for the fifth strongest. Secondly, as stated previously, 2024 was the closest to being the hottest year that 2024 has been to the pre-industrial era, with a 1.55°C increase. Third, there were record ocean temperatures during June 2026. Finally, current models suggest that there is a 63% chance that this particular El Niño event will be classified as “very strong,” and thus have ocean temperatures of more than 2.0°C above normal. El Niño’s maximum temperature tends to occur several months later, leaving global climate warming effects to persist. Of course, 2026 or 2027 may be the hottest since records have been kept.
Real-World Effects of Rising Ocean Heat
This extra warming can have a wide range of impacts on coral reefs, including more bleaching, which could lead to the loss of coral reefs and fisheries, impacting food security; increased incidence of extreme weather events and precipitation in other regions. In addition, the ocean’s insulating properties are decreased, and sea ice decreases in quantity. More powerful storms are able to form due to the additional heat and moisture in the air that comes from warmer waters. Therefore, tropical cyclones, heavy rainfall and high temperatures can affect areas that were not used to experiencing such events. The warming of the oceans would have consequences that go beyond the oceans, affecting the economy and ecosystems.
Is This a “Super El Niño”? What Scientists Are Watching
The current El Niño has led to record-breaking temperatures, especially for June 2026. It remains to be seen. Scientists are monitoring to see if the ongoing event will qualify as a “super El Niño.” Super El Niños are those with very strong values on all parameters measured. Such events have occurred a few times, most recently in 1982-83 and 1997-98. The first indicators for the 2026 super El Niño appeared in June 2026 when the temperature of the Pacific caught up with that of 1997. However, the warming in the eastern Pacific seems to be weaker than during that time period. Scientists are also looking into the possibility that very strong El Niños could have a lasting impact on the climate system and permanently change the weather patterns.
What This Means for the Future
It has become evident that El Niño events fuel global warming. The impacts of greenhouse gases emitted by humans appear to have lasting effects on the climate. This way, every El Niño is warmer and has a greater impact than the last. Developing countries urgently need adaptation funds. Hundreds of billions of dollars a year are needed to address the impacts of climate change. But this amount of money is not nearly enough for actual disbursal. There are two things you can do to help: support good climate policies and take good personal climate action. Knowing the difference between natural climate influences and anthropogenic climate influences is important in facing up to it and in deciding what to do about it for the future of the planet.
