Several poll surveys have been conducted in Delhi since the announcement of the Assembly election. A common and noticeable trend in the results of all these opinion polls has been that among the three main contending political parties – BJP, AAP and Congress – the already decimated Congress is definitely not going to make any recovery, rather it may go down further, and that there will be a neck and neck fight between the BJP and the AAP.
And now that the D-day has come so close, it is all the more clear that the presence of the Congress party in the final count is going to be negligible this time. The political pundits are already running commentaries that the Congress has lost the battle—and that it may not register its win even on the meager eight seats that it had won in the last election.
Congress loss, BJP’s gain
With the Congress already on its knees, the BJP is running ahead of the AAP which had taken the last election by storm and had even taken the Chief Minister’s throne albeit for a short while. Born out of Anna Hazare’s anti-corruption movement, the AAP had surprised both the Congress and the BJP, and even the public, with its winning streak last time.
But taking into consideration the results of the Lok Sabha elections held last year in which the BJP had registered a landslide victory on the back of the strong Modi wave and the prevailing anti-incumbency sentiments, it is being expected that the party is headed towards a clear majority in the approaching Delhi Assembly election.
In this election, it is not the Congress, but the AAP is the main rival of the BJP and both of them are expected to have neck and neck fight in which the latter is expected to come out with a clear majority ie. 36 seats in the 70-member Assembly, while the AAP is likely to win 29-30 seats as per most of the latest surveys.
While some surveys say that none of them is going to get a clear majority and there is a strong possibility of the return of hung Assembly and in such a situation these parties will require the support of the MLAs of any other party, or the independent candidates to help form a Government.
In such a scenario, the role of the Congress may once again become important in the formation of the Government if AAP volunteers to form the Government with its support, but here’s the catch. For pledging its support to the AAP, so that it can form the Government, the Congress party will have to manage winning at least eight to 10 seats. But looking at its poor performance in the Lok Sabha elections held last year and further the ongoing disturbance within its team, it seems, it won’t be able to win more than 4-5 seats in this election.
Maken effect – too little, too late!
Hence, it has become obvious that the Congress has ceased to matter in the Assembly polls. Looking at the current scenario, mostly the independent candidates, or various other parties will be in a better position than the Congress to hold the key to power, in case there happens to be a hung Assembly.
However, some voters may not be happy either with the BJP or the AAP and they may switch to vote for the Congress in a last-minute change of mind. The factor that may bring about this change may be a natural inclination of old Delhiites to Congress’ local man and its heavyweight Ajay Maken who, they have an excuse, has devoted his entire political life to Delhi.