Would the BJP’s calculations work? Is the BJP right in looking at 272+ as the number of Lok Sabha seats they can achieve on their own in 2014? Overconfidence killed the BJP’s Delhi dreams once, would the same overconfidence and overambitious target lead to the BJP staying out of power once again?
The BJP needs to look realistically at the current situation and rethink what number they would like to be seen as chasing. They must also look at whether they need to chase any number or not. This is how things look to me, today. The figure of 272+ looks extremely unlikely when there are going to be at least 200 seats which would have more than 4 winnable candidates fighting it out. Every state has at least one significant other, a few states have more than two significant others. In at least 14 states and UTs the BJP is likely to draw a blank and this spoils more than what they will gain from other pro-Modi states.
| Subdivision | Type | Number of Constituencies | UPA | NDA | Others |
| Andaman and Nicobar Islands | Union Territory | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andhra Pradesh | State | 42 | 16 | 18 | 8 |
| Arunachal Pradesh | State | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Assam | State | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 |
| Bihar | State | 40 | 12 | 8 | 20 |
| Chandigarh | Union Territory | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Chhattisgarh | State | 11 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Dadra and Nagar Haveli | Union Territory | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Daman and Diu | Union Territory | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Delhi | State | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Goa | State | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Gujarat | State | 26 | 6 | 15 | 5 |
| Haryana | State | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Himachal Pradesh | State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Jammu and Kashmir | State | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Jharkhand | State | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
| Karnataka | State | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 |
| Kerala | State | 20 | 14 | 0 | 6 |
| Lakshadweep | Union Territory | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Madhya Pradesh | State | 29 | 9 | 15 | 5 |
| Maharashtra | State | 48 | 14 | 28 | 6 |
| Manipur | State | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Meghalaya | State | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mizoram | State | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nagaland | State | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Odisha | State | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 |
| Puducherry | Union Territory | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Punjab | State | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| Rajasthan | State | 25 | 5 | 15 | 5 |
| Sikkim | State | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tamil Nadu | State | 39 | 12 | 15 | 12 |
| Tripura | State | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Uttarakhand | State | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Uttar Pradesh | State | 80 | 10 | 20 | 50 |
| West Bengal | State | 42 | 6 | 36 | |
| 543 | 166 | 188 | 189 |
I am taking these projections seriously, especially after the projected results of Delhi by you. Though I think you may have given a few seats more to Cong in some states like Andhara. Does this projection include effect of AAP if they go national.
Ur above prediction r Completly unable to think u r not even seeing ground situation mistake in ur prediction is Gujarat has 2 party system who r those 5 others who u have given sir after seeing great triumph in assembly poll 15 seats in MP is bit underestimation of party,Rajathan votes same to both Assembly and Loksabha poll so considering way congress lost state poll I think it won’t get even 3 seats,Chattisgarh too same problem Delhi I don’t think congress may get anything I think AAP will get 1 or 2 rest BJP because as AAP themselves said Kejriwal for CM Modi for PM is chorus in Delhi and Arunchal Pradesh all others well established surveys r giving BJP 1 seat,Karnataka 8 seats to others is laughable because only possibility for JDS is 3 seats and the most shocking is bihar ur giving 20 for others and 12 for congress all know Bihar congress is big waste and JDU is slipping as all r saying and all survey says BJP will lead on others BJP will win 14-15 considering the caste of Modi I think it’s sweep too cannot be taken out in Bihar and UP.
Dear sir.u r predictions in some states are true. But I won’t agree in some states like Rajasthan.Bihar.UP etc.but u predicted in TN 15 seats is too much.any way here and there adjusted and my calculation more than 220 still short of 52.we will see who will be the king maker and as usual we are going to witness horse trading.watch and wait.
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