Mission 272 or Mission Impossible?

Would the BJP’s calculations work? Is the BJP right in looking at 272+ as the number of Lok Sabha seats they can achieve on their own in 2014? Overconfidence killed the BJP’s Delhi dreams once, would the same overconfidence and overambitious target lead to the BJP staying out of power once again?

The BJP needs to look realistically at the current situation and rethink what number they would like to be seen as chasing. They must also look at whether they need to chase any number or not. This is how things look to me, today.  The figure of 272+ looks extremely unlikely when there are going to be at least 200 seats which would have more than 4 winnable candidates fighting it out. Every state has at least one significant other, a few states have more than two significant others. In at least 14 states and UTs the BJP is likely to draw a blank and this spoils more than what they will gain from other pro-Modi states.

Subdivision Type Number of Constituencies UPA NDA Others
Andaman and Nicobar Islands Union Territory 1 1 0 0
Andhra Pradesh State 42 16 18 8
Arunachal Pradesh State 2 2 0 0
Assam State 14 9 3 2
Bihar State 40 12 8 20
Chandigarh Union Territory 1 0 1 0
Chhattisgarh State 11 4 7 0
Dadra and Nagar Haveli Union Territory 1 0 1 0
Daman and Diu Union Territory 1 0 1 0
Delhi State 7 1 2 4
Goa State 2 0 2 0
Gujarat State 26 6 15 5
Haryana State 10 2 3 5
Himachal Pradesh State 4 2 2 0
Jammu and Kashmir State 6 4 2 0
Jharkhand State 14 4 8 2
Karnataka State 28 12 8 8
Kerala State 20 14 0 6
Lakshadweep Union Territory 1 1 0 0
Madhya Pradesh State 29 9 15 5
Maharashtra State 48 14 28 6
Manipur State 2 2 0 0
Meghalaya State 2 2 0 0
Mizoram State 1 1 0 0
Nagaland State 1 1 0 0
Odisha State 21 7 3 11
Puducherry Union Territory 1 0 1 0
Punjab State 13 3 7 3
Rajasthan State 25 5 15 5
Sikkim State 1 1 0 0
Tamil Nadu State 39 12 15 12
Tripura State 2 1 0 1
Uttarakhand State 5 2 3 0
Uttar Pradesh State 80 10 20 50
West Bengal State 42 6 36
543 166 188 189