Chhattisgarh and Mizoram Assembly Elections 2013: the possibilities

With regards to Chhattisgarh the exit poll conducted by Times Now and CVoter opines that the main contestants BJP and Congress will be running each other rather close. It is expected that the incumbent BJP will get 44 seats while Congress could end up with 41 seats. The election was organized in two phases. The first part of elections was held on November 11 and the second part was organized on November 19. BJP is being led by Raman Singh who is contesting from the Rajnandgaon constituency. In the election held in 2008, BJP had captured 50 seats and Congress had got 38 seats.

If the administration of Raman Singh is able to win the elections it will mean a 3rd straight term for BJP in this central Indian state. A joint poll conducted by the CNN-IBN in association with CSDS and The Week, conducted following the voting process, found out that Congress could win a maximum of 55 seats in the elections. Congress is expected to bag 40 seats at the most. The predictions have been made by Professor Rajeeva Karandikar who serves as the Director of the Chennai Mathematical Institute. It is expected that the other parties contesting the elections from this state would get a maximum of 7 seats. He has used the data received from the survey. The same survey had also predicted that BJP will receive 42% of the votes and Congress shall get 38% of the votes.

As per the poll, BJP and Congress were neck and neck in the northern part of the state that has 34 seats. The situation was similar in the southern part of the state that has 13 seats and is known to be a Maoist stronghold. However, in the central part as well as the urban areas BJP was found to have a clear advantage over Congress. The smaller parties have fared better in the southern part of the state.

The post poll survey was done in 2 phases as well – from November 13-19 and November 20-26. The survey took into cognizance 25 constituencies, 1629 voters and 97 polling booths. It has been seen that 33% of the people in this survey had stated that they had made their choices either on the day when they voted or just the day before and 48% revealed that their choices had been made long before the campaigns of the various political parties started. Among the 21% people who had decided on the day they voted, opted for Congress and this went a long way in bringing down the gap that existed between both the parties.

This time around more people seem to be supporting the existing administration and this has made things easier for Raman Singh. In 2008 the support for the incumbent party was 51% and in 2013 it has leapt to 55%. In 2008, 75% of the voters had expressed satisfaction at the work of Raman Singh and this time the percentage is around 82%.

Till now, BJP is being strongly preferred by people in the rural areas. Previously the rural areas were regarded as bastions of Congress but now it seems that the fortress has been breached. Congress is also highly preferred by the tribal people but the advantage it had over BJP in this regard has been reduced by a substantial way. Most of the first time voters have stated that they would like Congress on power but BJP has performed well enough for the other age groups.

One of the major features of the elections in Chhattisgarh was the use of extra paramilitary forces in order to ensure a smooth voting process across the 2 days. It had been stated in the media that 32 battalions of central paramilitary forces had been stationed in the area and this meant that 117 thousand officers were on duty across the state. Along with this, almost 25 thousand police officers had been put on duty in southern Chhattisgarh.

Situation in Mizoram 

The situation in Mizoram is expected to be similar to Delhi. It is still not clear as to which party shall be getting a majority over here and this could lead to a hung assembly. The northeast Indian state is presently under Congress administration and it is expected that the party will be getting 19 among the available 40 seats. The Mizo People’s Conference (MPC) and Mizo National Front (MNF), together, are supposed to bag 14 seats and 5 seats are supposed to go to the Zoram Nationalist Party (ZNP). The other parties are expected to win 2 seats in all.

This is the only state till now in 2013 where the BJP is yet to make any inroad and the competition is primarily limited to Congress and Mizo National Front. At present, the CM of Mizoram is Pu Lalthanwala, from Congress, who in the last election against his Pu Laldenga from the MNF.

During the elections held in 2008, Congress had been successful in 32 constituencies and the alliance of MNF and MPC had won 6 seats. The remaining couple of seats had gone to ZNP. The polling was scheduled on November 25.
[email protected]#$%
Related Information:

Chhattisgarh Election Results 2013

Mizoram Election Results 2013