Will the idea of ‘Nawa Punjab’ work in state assembly election 2022?

For quite some time now, Punjab has been at the helm of the battle when facing some severe socio-political issues. Prevalent drug use, poor infrastructure, agricultural issues, corruption, and unemployment are only some of the many systemic problems the state faces. It has led to the rise of discontent in public, along with a strong will to change.

The political state of affairs

The political support for Congress seems to be waning in the last few years. The Aam Aadmi Party(AAP) has been the biggest beneficiary of this mass voter disillusionment towards Congress. If recent opinion polls are to be believed, it seems likely that the AAP will be receiving the most votes this time around, displacing the Congress currently in power. However, it is still tough to predict the outcome due to the volatile political landscape of the state.

Under these circumstances, comes to fore the idea of ‘Nawa Punjab’ (New Punjab). The AAP has made intelligent strategic moves to position itself as the face of this new Punjab. But, on the other hand, Congress has tried to get on the change train by nominating incumbent Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi as the CM nominee. It signals a shift in the balance of power. Earlier, while the Jat Sikhs used to be the dominant community, holding key positions of power and dominating most socio-political spheres of life, the Dalit Sikhs, such as Channi, are making themselves known.

With that being said, it is easy to observe how identity and caste politics is still playing a significant role in politics. All major political parties target Dalits, Jat Sikhs, and other communities to tilt the consensus in their favour. It is expected since Punjab has the highest Dalit voter base in the country at about 32%. The AAP had seen the most success in consolidating this vote since 2017, when it secured 20% of the Dalit Sikh vote while winning nine reserved constituencies.

The second-largest vote share belongs to Jat Sikhs, standing at 21%. If opinion polls are to be believed, this vote share will likely be split between the Shiromani Akali Dal(SAD) and the AAP. While it is doubtful that the Jat Sikhs would vote for the BJP based on earlier vote patterns, it is a possibility that the NDA alliance of BJP and Shiromani Akali Dal might gain some footing as it has former CM Amarinder Singh and SAD(s) leader Sukhdev Singh Dhindhsa.

The AAP hopes to do well in the Malwa region, whereas Congress has its eyes set on the Doaba region, which has the highest proportion of Dalits and is an NRI hub. All the major parties have offered support to students who wish to study abroad. The SAD holds an advantage in the Majha region.

It remains to be seen whether or not the party that comes to power can focus on the core issues of corruption, drug use, poor infrastructure, and unemployment to help fruition this dream of ‘Nawa Punjab’.