Aam Aadmi Party Plays 20:20

To me, it looks like someone told Arvind Kejriwal that 20:20 is not only the best form of, our national passion, cricket, it is also best form of introducing a political challenge.  These 20 politicians who have been targeted have definitely had two sleepless nights and a restless day.  Aam Aadmi Party cannot swing all 20 of these their way, but 12-13 look a fairly safe bet.

When I look at the two seats of Delhi which have made to the elite 20:20, West Delhi and Chandni Chowk, mathematics looks to have acted as a base for Aam Aadmi Party. These are hard worked upon numbers. Looks like AAP decided to map sentiment with numbers and extrapolate the result. They may be contesting a lesser number of seats than Congress and BJP but their focus looks to be putting a candidate, where there is a big sentiment supporting it. Putting candidates against the tainted and ensuring that BJP comes under pressure to release their list is a good move.

News is already rife that Aam Aadmi Party has introduced so much uncertainty that BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate Mr. Narendra Modi may follow the path of Dr. Manmohan Singh and choose Rajya Sabha to get to parliament. Yesterday, social media was abuzz with BJP supporters daring Arvind Kejriwal to fight against Sonia Gandhi, it is a neat ploy and perfectly fair at this phase of run-up to the elections.

I did some number crunching and sentiment mapping to come to some early indicators. I am sure Aam Aadmi Party is looking forward to 40% + success rate. Out of 20 seats, I am confident that they would get 9; for the remaining 11, some more work is required.

Salman Khurshid is on a very weak ground and this one is going to be a 5-corner contest, a serious 5-corner contest. In a 5-corner contest, giving a chance to AAP looks like certainty.  Farrukhabad for AAP.

Suresh Kalmadi just can’t be fielded by Congress again and this is going to be a 4-cornered contest. MNS of Raj Thackeray would make things difficult for BJP-Shiv Sena combine, hence giving more than a fair chance to AAP to walk away with this seat. Pune for AAP.

Akali Dal is likely to give a seat to BJP as its alliance partner, Manish Tiwari is good enough but in an anti-Congress wave sweeping India through and through, he would have to concede defeat to HS Phoolka. HS Phoolka has people adoring him for fighting it out for the causes of unfortunate victims of the 1984 Congress engineered pogrom against Sikhs. Ludhiana for AAP.

Meera Sanyal has a great chance as this seat is keenly contested by both MNS & Shiv Sena, without a seat sharing pact between MNS and Shiv Sena they would spoil the show for each other and Meera Sanyal would walk away with the disgruntled Congress voters voting for her. The fact that she is committed to the constituency, having fought as an independent in last elections is going to go in her favour.  South Mumbai for AAP.

Mumbai North East was a very keenly contested 3-cornered contest in 2009. It is going to be a 4-cornered contest this time around. MNS is surely in for a major setback but that won;lt be sufficient for BJP to take the seat away. Mumbai North East for AAP.

Nagpur – Nitin Gadkari, not a sitting MP from here and is only likely to contest from this seat. MNS has no strong  presence in this region, but that may not be sufficient for BJP to pull this one. BSP was an impressive third with 16% vote share. An early head start would help Anjali Damania despite reports of serious differences within AAP’s Nagpur chapter. Nagpur for AAP.

West Delhi constituency is very crucial to BJP, this constituency which was created in 2009 after realigning South Delhi constituency and Outer Delhi constituency. Congress couldn’t retain even one of the ten assembly constituencies here, sitting MP, Mahabal Mishra’s son also lost. There can be a big spoiler for AAP here, if BJP gives the seat to its ally Akali Dal and Akali Dal fields Maninder Singh Sirsa, the sitting MLA from Rajouri Garden. Prof. Jagdish Mukhi, the other strong prospect for this seat from BJP barely managed to win his own segment this time. Jarnail Singh, the AAP candidate, Jarnail Singh would get votes from all those who are sorry that the 1984 pogrom accused have not been punished.

This is no longer Chaudhary Charan Singh’s Baghpat, Ajit Singh can’t take his seat for granted anymore.  There are demographic changes which have happened and it promises to be a serious 5-cornered contest. BSP, SP, BJP, RLD and AAP are going to slug it out. Baghpat for AAP.

Rao Inderjit Singh was one of the biggest stalwarts of Congress and alienating him is definitely not good for Congress but it is also not likely to be good for Rao Inderjeet Singh too. Yogendra Yadav, AAP candidate from Gurgaon would find it easy in Gurgaon assembly constituency, but in other eight assembly constituencies, he can find it very rough. If he gets Sohna & Pataudi segments he can be home. Tough one, but Gurgaon may go  for AAP.

Chandni Chowk is an AAP certainty. They did exceedingly well in all the 10 assembly constituencies making this parliamentary constituency. They won four, were placed second in three segments, and third in two. Only in  Ballimaran they were placed fourth. BJP has no candidate for this constituency. In 2004, they had tried Smriti Irani and in 2009, they tried it out with Vijendra Gupta. Vijay Goel would not like to contest from here, he is the only candidate from BJP who actually has a chance. Chandni Chowk for AAP.


Related Information:

Map of Aam Aadmi Party Candidates in Parliamentary Elections 2014

Delhi Lok Sabha Elections 2014
Delhi Lok Sabha Election Results
Lok Sabha Elections 2014
Lok Sabha Election Results