Delhi may probably experience the hung assembly this year which is formed when no political party is able to prove majority to form government. In hung assembly the state directly comes under the President’s rule. The last assembly in Delhi was appointed on 18th December 2008 which is going to dissolve on 17 Dec 2013. So a new assembly must be constituted by the same date this year. Polling results are coming on 8th Dec giving political parties just eight days to reach at the decision. In case it does not happen then President’s rule will be applied to the state from 18th Dec. Delhi will then have to vote again in fresh elections within six months from December 17. Till 17 December present government will act as a caretaker of the state. Yesterday Delhi has seen 66% voting, the highest in the last two decades. But why the scenario of hung assembly is coming up for Delhi?
First of all with the strong entry of Aam Adami Party (AAP), there are now three major parties in the political arena of Delhi i.e. AAP, BJP and Congress. Proving majority is bit difficult in such a situation. Entry of AAP has brought a big change in the game that earlier was mainly played between BJP and Congress. Secondly most of the exit polls are pointing towards hung assembly in Delhi. Though this is not a final verdict but just the probability. In spite of this it cannot be ruled out blindly.
As per political permutation two scenarios are expected – according to one BJP will have the majority to form the government and in second scenario no party will win by majority of seats. In this case either there will be a coalition government or hung assembly.
According to the results of the CNN-IBN-CSDS Election Tracker opinion poll, there is a possibility of hung assembly in Delhi. As per these polls, BJP would win 29% of votes, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) would win 28% and Congress 27% of votes. It is clear that none of the party will have votes to prove majority i.e. 35% to form government. It is also expected that if result of opinion polls go wrong then AAP would win the election with majority. The new entrant has surely taken a huge vote bank from both Congress and BJP. AAP’s campaigns were very powerful and also its supporters showed great enthusiasm.
In case BJP gets seats close to 28 then it may ask the BSP and independents to provide support to form government. On the other hand if its seats were less than 22 then it will need the support from AAP or Congress. But chance of these parties providing support BJP is close to negligible. This is going to be a very close contest among three parties in Delhi this year.
At the same time it has been said that chances of Congress coming back to power are very less. In case Congress wins 20 seats then there is a possibility that it may either back AAP or BJP. But as the Lok Sabha elections are not far so Congress may hesitate to provide its support to either of these parties. Even it is the testing time for Arvind Khejriwal whose main motto is ‘anti-corruption’. Now will he accept the support from Congress to form a government? Over the past fifteen years voters have seen enough of Congress so this time there are less chances of this party to come into power with majority. Some of the opinion polls show BJP as the most hopeful of the three.
In case there is no possible permutation and combination then hung assembly will be the only option in Delhi. In case all the three major parties BJP, Congress and AAP won’t enter into any kind of poll alliance then President’s rule will apply and Delhi will then have to face fresh election within six months. In such a scenario, the Lieutenant Governor becomes the complete executive head of the government. For advice ‘council of ministers’ will be appointed by him.
As per the political experts, formation of hung government delays the progress of state as it impacts almost all the functions of the government adversely. So let us see on 8th Dec whether Delhi is going to have a hung assembly or a formal government.
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