After 2 mini rounds and 1 full phase of the General Elections 2014, it is time to make a few predictions based on the trends available and my personal knowledge of the political scenario prevailing in all the states.
First, the impressions of the election juggernaut:
- Though there is a perceptible Modi wave, or even storm in many parts of the country, it is not all pervasive. Punjab, Kerala and West Bengal seem largely unaffected. BJP has, however, made impressive vote share gains in Kerala and WB, but does not seem to be gaining much traction in terms of seats. There is a good chance though that O. Rajagopal may win the Thiruvananthpuram seat. The other hope of BJP, Kasaragod in the northernmost part, seems to have been dashed after polling.
- In Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh (including proposed Telangana), there may not be a Modi wave, but the BJP alliance is making waves in both these states. In TN, the alliance is notching 15-20% of vote, which may not take it to double figure, but will seriously dent Amma. DMK is smiling all the way to the EVMs. In Andhra, YSR rise has been checked in Seemandhra with the addition of the Modi vote to TDP. In the Telangana portion, all calculations have been thrown into a vortex. BJP looks like winning a couple, but upsetting the applecart in many more.
- In Upper Assam and Barak Valley, which I considered the ultimate stronghold of Congress in this elections, the fort has been breached and BJP is taking at least 5 of the 8 seats polled so far. If this is an evidence of the wave, then all our predictions may go awry.
- BJP is definitely winning Arunachal West, with an optimistic outlook for Arunachal East.
- Congress is in for a huge shock in Manipur, where the Inner Manipur seat is likely to go to BJP.
- In Orissa, BJP had been written off, but in the 10 seats which polled on 10th, BJP has made an impressive showing in almost every seat, including such BJD strongholds as Bargarh and Sundergarh. Sambalpur, Bolangir and Kalahandi were already predicted to go the BJP way. What has surprised all of us is the strong showing by BJP even in seats like Nabrangpur, Aski, Kandhamal, Berhampur and Koraput. If these trends continue, then BJP may match BJD seat for seat in Odisha.
- Western UP has gone one way. The 10 seats which went to poll on 10th have returned a virtually unanimous verdict – BJP. Ajit Singh may be the only one to stop BJP in this area. 2nd round in UP is in Rohilkhand and Moradabad with one seat from Lucknow division thrown in (Kheri). I think the trend will engulf this area too as issues are similar. It is only in the 3rd UP round which will poll the Etawa-Mainpuri-Farrukhabad area that may arrest the trend. As of now, it is a story of Hindu consolidation across castes.
- Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Bihar and Jharkhand are witnessing the strongest upsurge in Modi wave and anything between 80-90% seats appear to be going the BJP way.
- Maharashtra has already shown its hand. In the 10 Vidarbha constituencies which polled on 10th, Congress-NCP are struggling even in such strongholds as Chandrapur, Bhandara and Yavatmal. The Nagpur and Ramtek story is no story at all – it’s BJP all the way. Akola, Buldhana, Amravati are also leaning BJP. Only Gadhchiroli looks promising for Cong-NCP. If this trends persist across Marathwada (8 seats), Bombay area (11 seats), Khandesh (8 seats) and Konkan-Maharashtra (11 seats), all would be lost for Cong-NCP. In the Pawar country, except Baramati, no other seat looks safe. Even Sangli, a seat always won by Congress since independence, looks shaky after BJP put up a Congress defector.
- In Karnataka, the news is that except Hyderabad Karnataka’s 4 seats and Mysore area (3 seats), Congress is under severe pressure. The Central Karnataka (Chitradurga, Chikballapur) Kolar, Tumkur, Bangalore N, C, W and Rural, Davanagere) is witnessing a strong contest. Bombay Karnataka ( Haveri, Bijapur, Bagalkot, Dharwad, Belgaum) and coastal Karnataka (Karwad, Shimoga, Udupi, Mangalore) are going BJP way. Even on the Congress stronghold of Mysore, Pratap Simha (@mepratap) is running a close battle.
- Congress is likely to get to double figure only in Karnataka, and that too if Kharge does not damage Siddaramaiah.
- We don’t know where BJP will end up in UP. Though I am predicting 48 as of now, it was based on the premise that BSP will give a fight in Western UP and SP will hold its own in Awadh and lower doab. Congress was expected to do something in Purvanchal too, but seems to be sinking without trace. If Modi’s masterstroke of contesting from Varanasi gets BJP the traction it was hoping for, BJP could even breach the 60 mark. Surprisingly, though, Hema Malini is struggling in Mathura, and Jitin Prasad and Annu Tandon seem to be the only Congis who may win other than Mom and son.
- The Chandigarh news is that the underclass moved over en masse to BJP on the day of polling, so Kirron Kher, who was languishing in 3rd place behind Bansal and Gul Panag, suddenly moved into the fighting position, with Gul pushed to 3rd.
- AAP has only flattered to deceive. It is only taking away a few votes here and there and is not winning a single seat anywhere – yes, not even in Delhi. Yogendra Yadav is finishing 4th, and the only place other than Delhi where they will get a few 3rd place finishes is Punjab (including Chandigarh). Phoolka is having a strong fight for 3rd and 4th place finish with Bains, and Bhagwant Mann from Sangrur, and Daljit Singh from Amritsar may finish 3rd. Medha Patkar will finish 3rd only for the reason that MNS has not fielded a candidate. Bangalore Central may also see Balakrishna come 3rd. Arvind Kejriwal may finish 3rd now after Mukhtar Ansari has withdrawn. The bets in the satta market are now being placed on the number of AAP candidates who will save their deposit. My bet is ‘not more than 20’. You may place yours now. Most places where it is taking more than 10,000 votes, it is usually at the expense of Congress.
- In the Varanasi battle, the only question is margin, and who will finish 2nd. In Vadodara, even the 2nd place finish is known, so margin is the only question
- So here we go, this is my conservative estimate for GE 2014:
|S. No.||State||Seats for BJP||Seats for Congress||Others|
|9||West Bengal||1||2||30 TMC, 9 CPM|
|12||Bihar||24||1||5 LJP-NDA, 6 RJD-UPA, 4 JD(U)|
|14||UP||48||2||20 BSP, 11 SP|
|20||Maharashtra||18||8||16 SHS, 1 RSS, 1 RPI, (NDA), 4 NCP-UPA|
|22||Kerala||1||8||8 CPM, 1 IUML, 2 Other LDF|
|23||Tamil Nadu||2||0||20 AIADMK, 12 DMK; 2 DMDK, 2 PMK, 1 MDMK (NDA)|
|27||AP (Including Telangana)||5||5||YCP 11, TRS 10; TDP 10 (NDA), 1 AIMIM|
|28||Dadra Nagar Haveli||1||0||0|
|31||Haryana||4||3||1 HJC-NDA, 2 INLD|
|35||J&K||2||0||3 PDP, 1 NC|
|TOTAL||246||75||222 (48 NDA, 12 UPA, 30 TMC, 20 AIADMK, 20 BSP, 19 CPM, 11 BJD, 11 SP, 12 DMK, 11 YCP, 10 TRS, 18 Others)|
Uttar Pradesh Election Result
West Bengal Election Results
Rajasthan Election Results
Gujarat Election Result
Maharashtra Election 2014 Results
Andhra Pradesh Election Results
Karnataka Election Result
Delhi Election Results
Tamil Nadu Election Results