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Opinion Poll of Delhi Assembly Election 2015

BJP the First Choice but Faces Strong Challenge from AAP

According to an India TV-CVoter opinion poll, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may reach the half-way mark (35 seats) in the 70-member Delhi Assembly, but may fall just short of a clear majority in the February 7, 2015 elections. The party had won 31 seats in the December, 2013 Assembly elections, while its ally Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) had won one seat.

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) may emerge as a strong challenger to the BJP as it may take its tally to 29 seats, one more than its score in the 2013 Assembly polls.

The Indian National Congress (INC), however, may deliver its worst ever performance with managing to grab only five seats, way behind BJP and AAP. In the last Assembly polls, the INC's tally was reduced to just eight seats.

As for vote share, the BJP is likely to get 42 per cent of the total votes polled while AAP may also claim 40 per cent vote share with INC being left with only 11 per cent. In the 2013 Assembly polls, the vote share of three of them was 33, 29 and 25 per cent, respectively.

In central Delhi, nine seats may go to the BJP; in outer Delhi it may win 11 and the trans-Yamuna region may also bring 11 seats to its fold. The corresponding tally for Arvind Kejriwal's party is nine, 14 and six, respectively.

But according to another opinion poll, the India Today Group and CICERO Delhi RCS Tracker Poll-2015 (Wave-II), the BJP is likely to bag 34-40 Assembly seats and form its government in Delhi. Kejriwal continues to be the most favourite CM candidate, with 35 per cent of respondents expressing their preference for him. His party, though, may win anywhere between 25 and 31 seats, while the INC could end up with only 3-5 seats and two seats may go to Others.

The survey predicts that the BJP is likely to get 40 per cent vote share, while the AAP may secure 36 per cent of total votes polled.


Last Updated on : January 14, 2015